Predictions are closed for this match.
Djurgården
02:00 PM
Sep 20
IF Elfsborg
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Djurgården | 1.54 | 62 % | -4.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -0.4 % |
| 2IF Elfsborg | 5.50 | 17 % | -13.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Djurgården
IF Elfsborg
| Djurgården | Form and statistics | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|
| 1665 | Elo | 1536 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 14.6 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Djurgården a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Djurgården win 62 %, draw 22 %, IF Elfsborg win 16 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.54 for Djurgården, 4.50 for the draw, 5.50 for IF Elfsborg.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (Allsvenskan), at Tele2 Arena.
The model leans towards Djurgården at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.99 goals for Djurgården and 1.03 for IF Elfsborg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Djurgården took 15 points and IF Elfsborg 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Djurgården, 0 draws, 2 wins for IF Elfsborg. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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