Energie Cottbus
01:30 PM
Sep 20
St. Pauli
Energie Cottbus – St. Pauli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Energie Cottbus at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.40 for St. Pauli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.10, the predicted outcome carries +40.9 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Energie Cottbus took 4 points and St. Pauli 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Energie Cottbus | 3.10 | 30 % | +40.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -1.6 % |
| 2St. Pauli |
Form and statistics
Energie Cottbus
- Last 5 matches
- At home
St. Pauli
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Energie Cottbus | Form and statistics | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| 1461 | Elo | 1442 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 14.8 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Energie Cottbus – St. Pauli?
Our model gives 1 · Energie Cottbus a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Energie Cottbus win 45 %, draw 26 %, St. Pauli win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Energie Cottbus – St. Pauli?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
