Predictions are closed for this match.
Celtic
01:00 PM
Sep 20
Rangers
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 2.17 | 43 % | +28.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -28.3 % |
| 2Rangers | 3.10 | 30 % | -36.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Celtic
Rangers
| Celtic | Form and statistics | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 1745 | Elo | 1670 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 18.4 | Shots / match | 14.7 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 10 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:54 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Celtic a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Celtic win 59 %, draw 20 %, Rangers win 20 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 62 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.17 for Celtic, 3.52 for the draw, 3.10 for Rangers.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (Scottish Premiership), at Celtic Park.
The model leans towards Celtic at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.12 goals for Celtic and 1.10 for Rangers. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.17, the predicted outcome carries +28.9 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Celtic took 12 points and Rangers 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Celtic, 3 draws, 1 win for Rangers. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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