Predictions are closed for this match.
Sporting CP
09:30 PM
Sep 19
Arouca
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 1.14 | 82 % | -10.5 % |
| XDraw | 8.00 | 12 % | +12.6 % |
| 2Arouca | 14.00 | 7 % | +6.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sporting CP
Arouca
| Sporting CP | Form and statistics | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| 1865 | Elo | 1551 |
| 2.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 15.6 | Shots / match | 11.3 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sporting CP a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sporting CP win 78 %, draw 14 %, Arouca win 8 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 65 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.14 for Sporting CP, 8.00 for the draw, 14.00 for Arouca.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:30 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio José Alvalade.
The model leans towards Sporting CP at home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.55 goals for Sporting CP and 0.82 for Arouca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 82 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sporting CP took 13 points and Arouca 7 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Sporting CP, 1 draw, 0 wins for Arouca. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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