Predictions are closed for this match.
Sevilla
09:00 PM
Sep 19
Barcelona
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 9.00 | 11 % | +18.7 % |
| XDraw | 6.50 | 15 % | +15.8 % |
| 2Barcelona | 1.27 | 75 % | -12.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sevilla
Barcelona
| Sevilla | Form and statistics | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| 1601 | Elo | 1950 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 3.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 12.7 | Shots / match | 18.4 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Barcelona a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sevilla win 13 %, draw 18 %, Barcelona win 69 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 66 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 9.00 for Sevilla, 6.50 for the draw, 1.27 for Barcelona.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:00 PM (LaLiga), at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.
The model leans towards Barcelona away from home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.94 goals for Sevilla and 2.45 for Barcelona. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 75 %. Over their last five matches, Sevilla took 10 points and Barcelona 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sevilla, 0 draws, 4 wins for Barcelona. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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