Predictions are closed for this match.
Lyon
08:45 PM
Sep 19
Stade Rennais
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 2.10 | 45 % | -10.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +0.6 % |
| 2Stade Rennais | 3.23 | 29 % | -2.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Lyon
Stade Rennais
| Lyon | Form and statistics | Stade Rennais |
|---|---|---|
| 1725 | Elo | 1697 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 14.0 | Shots / match | 17.9 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Lyon a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lyon win 42 %, draw 27 %, Stade Rennais win 30 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 53 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.10 for Lyon, 3.70 for the draw, 3.23 for Stade Rennais.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Groupama Stadium.
The model leans towards Lyon at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.52 goals for Lyon and 1.29 for Stade Rennais. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lyon took 8 points and Stade Rennais 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lyon, 0 draws, 3 wins for Stade Rennais. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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