Predictions are closed for this match.
Angers
08:45 PM
Sep 19
Troyes
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Angers | 2.08 | 46 % | -27.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -4.1 % |
| 2Troyes | 3.65 | 26 % | +37.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Angers
Troyes
| Angers | Form and statistics | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 1499 | Elo | 1584 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 11.4 | Shots / match | 13.6 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Troyes a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Angers win 35 %, draw 27 %, Troyes win 38 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 48 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.08 for Angers, 3.50 for the draw, 3.65 for Troyes.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Raymond Kopa.
The model leans towards Troyes away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.26 goals for Angers and 1.32 for Troyes. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 26 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.65, the predicted outcome carries +37.8 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Angers took 5 points and Troyes 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Angers, 0 draws, 0 wins for Troyes. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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