Dynamo Dresden
08:30 PM
Sep 19
Hertha Berlin
Dynamo Dresden – Hertha Berlin
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hertha Berlin away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.45 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.63 for Hertha Berlin. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Dynamo Dresden took 7 points and Hertha Berlin 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Dynamo Dresden, 0 draws, 2 wins for Hertha Berlin. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Dresden | 2.52 | 37 % | -16.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +0.4 % |
| 2Hertha Berlin | 2.48 | 38 % | -0.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Dynamo Dresden
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hertha Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Dynamo Dresden | Form and statistics | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 1490 | Elo | 1582 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 14.6 | Shots / match | 17.6 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Dynamo Dresden
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Hertha Berlin
- Dynamo Dresden0-1Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin2-0Dynamo Dresden
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dynamo Dresden – Hertha Berlin?
Our model gives 2 · Hertha Berlin a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dynamo Dresden win 33 %, draw 27 %, Hertha Berlin win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Dynamo Dresden – Hertha Berlin?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
