Predictions are closed for this match.
Ajax Amsterdam
08:00 PM
Sep 19
Excelsior
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.24 | 76 % | -4.8 % |
| XDraw | 6.38 | 15 % | -5.2 % |
| 2Excelsior | 10.00 | 9 % | -16.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Ajax Amsterdam
Excelsior
| Ajax Amsterdam | Form and statistics | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| 1709 | Elo | 1513 |
| 3.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 24.0 | Shots / match | 13.5 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 77 %, draw 15 %, Excelsior win 8 %.
The most likely score is 3-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 76 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.24 for Ajax Amsterdam, 6.38 for the draw, 10.00 for Excelsior.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Eredivisie), at Johan Cruijff Arena.
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam at home (77 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.04 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.96 for Excelsior. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 12 points and Excelsior 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 3 draws, 1 win for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals: 76 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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