Ajax Amsterdam
2-2
Excelsior
Ajax Amsterdam – Excelsior
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 77 %
- Most likely score
- 3-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.04 – 0.96
The short version
Final score: Ajax Amsterdam 2-2 Excelsior. The model predicted a win for Ajax Amsterdam (77 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.04 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.96 for Excelsior. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 12 points and Excelsior 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 3 draws, 1 win for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals: 76 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.24 | 76 % | -4.8 % |
| XDraw | 6.38 | 15 % | -5.2 % |
| 2Excelsior | 10.00 | 9 % | -16.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Excelsior
- Excelsior2-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam1-2Excelsior
- Ajax Amsterdam2-2Excelsior
- Excelsior2-2Ajax Amsterdam
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ajax Amsterdam – Excelsior?
Final score: Ajax Amsterdam 2-2 Excelsior. The model predicted a win for Ajax Amsterdam (77 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam – Excelsior?
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 77 %, draw 15 %, Excelsior win 8 %.