Predictions are closed for this match.
Metz
08:00 PM
Sep 19
Saint-Étienne
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Metz | 3.73 | 25 % | +14.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.48 | 26 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Saint-Étienne | 1.87 | 49 % | -21.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Metz
Saint-Étienne
| Metz | Form and statistics | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| 1454 | Elo | 1567 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 14.8 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 7 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Saint-Étienne a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Metz win 31 %, draw 27 %, Saint-Étienne win 42 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.73 for Metz, 3.48 for the draw, 1.87 for Saint-Étienne.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Ligue 2), at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
The model leans towards Saint-Étienne away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.26 goals for Metz and 1.42 for Saint-Étienne. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Metz took 6 points and Saint-Étienne 12 points. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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