Grazer AK
07:30 PM
Sep 19
Austria Vienna
Grazer AK – Austria Vienna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Austria Vienna away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for Grazer AK and 1.31 for Austria Vienna. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Grazer AK took 7 points and Austria Vienna 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Grazer AK, 1 draw, 3 wins for Austria Vienna. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grazer AK | 2.73 | 34 % | -9.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.17 | 29 % | -4.5 % |
| 2Austria Vienna | 2.58 | 36 % | -5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Grazer AK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Austria Vienna
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Grazer AK | Form and statistics | Austria Vienna |
|---|---|---|
| 1452 | Elo | 1528 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 11.7 | Shots / match | 6.8 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Grazer AK
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Austria Vienna
- Austria Vienna2-1Grazer AK
- Grazer AK2-2Austria Vienna
- Grazer AK1-2Austria Vienna
- Austria Vienna2-1Grazer AK
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Grazer AK – Austria Vienna?
Our model gives 2 · Austria Vienna a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Grazer AK win 33 %, draw 30 %, Austria Vienna win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Grazer AK – Austria Vienna?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
