Ascoli
3-1
US Avellino
Ascoli – US Avellino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Ascoli 3-1 US Avellino. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (48 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Ascoli and 0.92 for US Avellino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ascoli took 7 points and US Avellino 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ascoli | 2.08 | 45 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.27 | 29 % | -5.1 % |
| 2US Avellino | 3.58 | 26 % | -17.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ascoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
US Avellino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ascoli – US Avellino?
Final score: Ascoli 3-1 US Avellino. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (48 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Ascoli – US Avellino?
Our model gives 1 · Ascoli a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ascoli win 48 %, draw 29 %, US Avellino win 23 %.