Predictions are closed for this match.
O Elvas
07:00 PM
Sep 19
Uniao Leiria
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1O Elvas | 6.00 | 15 % | +222.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -27.4 % |
| 2Uniao Leiria | 1.51 | 61 % | -57.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
O Elvas
Uniao Leiria
| O Elvas | Form and statistics | Uniao Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| 1532 | Elo | 1548 |
| 2.57 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 5.5 | Shots / match | 2.6 |
| 57 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 13 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · O Elvas a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: O Elvas win 54 %, draw 18 %, Uniao Leiria win 28 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 6.00 for O Elvas, 4.00 for the draw, 1.51 for Uniao Leiria.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Taça de Portugal), at Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino.
The model leans towards O Elvas at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for O Elvas and 1.19 for Uniao Leiria. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 15 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 6.00, the predicted outcome carries +222.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, O Elvas took 12 points and Uniao Leiria 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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