Alverca
1-0
Rio Ave
Alverca – Rio Ave
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Alverca 1-0 Rio Ave. The model predicted a win for Alverca (47 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Alverca and 0.99 for Rio Ave. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Alverca took 5 points and Rio Ave 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Alverca, 2 draws, 0 wins for Rio Ave. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alverca | 1.75 | 53 % | -17.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.67 | 26 % | +4.9 % |
| 2Rio Ave | 4.45 | 21 % | +7.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Alverca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rio Ave
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Alverca
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Rio Ave
- Rio Ave1-2Alverca
- Alverca1-1Rio Ave
- Alverca2-2Rio Ave
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Alverca – Rio Ave?
Final score: Alverca 1-0 Rio Ave. The model predicted a win for Alverca (47 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Alverca – Rio Ave?
Our model gives 1 · Alverca a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Alverca win 47 %, draw 29 %, Rio Ave win 24 %.