Kilmarnock
06:45 PM
Sep 19
Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock – Heart of Midlothian
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.06 – 2.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Heart of Midlothian away from home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.06 goals for Kilmarnock and 2.04 for Heart of Midlothian. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Kilmarnock took 4 points and Heart of Midlothian 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Kilmarnock, 1 draw, 3 wins for Heart of Midlothian. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kilmarnock | 4.45 | 21 % | -15.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Heart of Midlothian | 1.70 | 55 % | -5.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Kilmarnock
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Heart of Midlothian
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Kilmarnock | Form and statistics | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| 1447 | Elo | 1635 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 11.9 | Shots / match | 13.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Kilmarnock
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Heart of Midlothian
- Kilmarnock1-0Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian1-1Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock0-3Heart of Midlothian
- Kilmarnock0-1Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-2Kilmarnock
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kilmarnock – Heart of Midlothian?
Our model gives 2 · Heart of Midlothian a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kilmarnock win 19 %, draw 25 %, Heart of Midlothian win 56 %.
What is the most likely score for Kilmarnock – Heart of Midlothian?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
