VfB Stuttgart
06:30 PM
Sep 19
Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-28 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.68 – 1.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Borussia Dortmund away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.68 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.58 for Borussia Dortmund. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, VfB Stuttgart took 9 points and Borussia Dortmund 15 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 draw, 1 win for Borussia Dortmund. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfB Stuttgart | 2.33 | 40 % | -13.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -5.0 % |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 2.67 | 35 % | +0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
VfB Stuttgart
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Borussia Dortmund
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| VfB Stuttgart | Form and statistics | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1746 | Elo | 1809 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.60 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 16.2 | Shots / match | 15.9 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- VfB Stuttgart
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Borussia Dortmund
- VfB Stuttgart0-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund3-3VfB Stuttgart
- Borussia Dortmund1-2VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart5-1Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund0-1VfB Stuttgart
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund?
Our model gives 2 · Borussia Dortmund a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: VfB Stuttgart win 37 %, draw 25 %, Borussia Dortmund win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
