Predictions are closed for this match.
Eldense
06:30 PM
Sep 19
Eibar
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eldense | 2.70 | 35 % | -27.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 31 % | -5.3 % |
| 2Eibar | 2.75 | 34 % | +17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Eldense
Eibar
| Eldense | Form and statistics | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| 1443 | Elo | 1606 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 9.9 | Shots / match | 11.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Eibar a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Eldense win 27 %, draw 31 %, Eibar win 43 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.70 for Eldense, 3.10 for the draw, 2.75 for Eibar.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat.
The model leans towards Eibar away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.09 goals for Eldense and 1.39 for Eibar. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 34 %. Over their last five matches, Eldense took 5 points and Eibar 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Eldense, 0 draws, 3 wins for Eibar. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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