Predictions are closed for this match.
Castellón
06:30 PM
Sep 19
Tenerife
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Castellón | 1.46 | 65 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | -4.6 % |
| 2Tenerife | 7.00 | 13 % | +2.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Castellón
Tenerife
| Castellón | Form and statistics | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| 1606 | Elo | 1483 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 15.9 | Shots / match | 8.7 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Castellón a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Castellón win 63 %, draw 22 %, Tenerife win 15 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.46 for Castellón, 4.30 for the draw, 7.00 for Tenerife.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Nou Estadi Castalia.
The model leans towards Castellón at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.87 goals for Castellón and 0.82 for Tenerife. Bookmakers say the same thing: 65 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Castellón took 13 points and Tenerife 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Castellón, 0 draws, 1 win for Tenerife. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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