Aker Stadion
Molde
1-2
Aalesund
Molde – Aalesund
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.71 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Molde 1-2 Aalesund. The model predicted a win for Molde (74 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.71 goals for Molde and 1.02 for Aalesund. Bookmakers say the same thing: 70 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Molde took 12 points and Aalesund 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Molde, 1 draw, 1 win for Aalesund. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Molde | 1.34 | 70 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | -9.2 % |
| 2Aalesund | 7.00 | 13 % | -29.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Molde
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aalesund
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Molde
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Aalesund
- Aalesund2-2Molde
- Aalesund3-1Molde
- Molde3-0Aalesund
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Molde – Aalesund?
Final score: Molde 1-2 Aalesund. The model predicted a win for Molde (74 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Molde – Aalesund?
Our model gives 1 · Molde a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Molde win 74 %, draw 16 %, Aalesund win 10 %.