Predictions are closed for this match.
AS Roma
06:00 PM
Sep 19
Internazionale
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AS Roma | 2.65 | 35 % | +6.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -12.1 % |
| 2Internazionale | 2.52 | 37 % | -15.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AS Roma
Internazionale
| AS Roma | Form and statistics | Internazionale |
|---|---|---|
| 1790 | Elo | 1870 |
| 2.60 | Goals scored / match | 2.50 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 16.4 | Shots / match | 18.6 |
| 90 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AS Roma a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AS Roma win 40 %, draw 26 %, Internazionale win 34 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 60 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.65 for AS Roma, 3.35 for the draw, 2.52 for Internazionale.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Serie A), at Olimpico.
The model leans towards AS Roma at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.55 goals for AS Roma and 1.42 for Internazionale. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, AS Roma took 13 points and Internazionale 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for AS Roma, 0 draws, 4 wins for Internazionale. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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