Predictions are closed for this match.
Paris FC
05:15 PM
Sep 19
Strasbourg
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris FC | 1.80 | 53 % | -13.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | +8.1 % |
| 2Strasbourg | 4.20 | 23 % | -0.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Paris FC
Strasbourg
| Paris FC | Form and statistics | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| 1663 | Elo | 1673 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 12.8 | Shots / match | 11.8 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Paris FC a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris FC win 48 %, draw 28 %, Strasbourg win 24 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.80 for Paris FC, 3.88 for the draw, 4.20 for Strasbourg.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:15 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Jean Bouin.
The model leans towards Paris FC at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Paris FC and 1.11 for Strasbourg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Paris FC took 11 points and Strasbourg 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Paris FC, 1 draw, 1 win for Strasbourg. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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