Predictions are closed for this match.
Sampdoria
05:15 PM
Sep 19
Catanzaro
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sampdoria | 1.91 | 49 % | -32.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +1.4 % |
| 2Catanzaro | 3.88 | 24 % | +37.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
| Sampdoria | Form and statistics | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| 1389 | Elo | 1483 |
| 0.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 13.9 | Shots / match | 14.4 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Catanzaro a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sampdoria win 35 %, draw 29 %, Catanzaro win 36 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 44 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.91 for Sampdoria, 3.50 for the draw, 3.88 for Catanzaro.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:15 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
The model leans towards Catanzaro away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Sampdoria and 1.26 for Catanzaro. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 24 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.88, the predicted outcome carries +37.8 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Sampdoria took 1 point and Catanzaro 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sampdoria, 4 draws, 0 wins for Catanzaro. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
