C.D. Nacional
04:30 PM
Sep 19
FC Famalicao
C.D. Nacional – FC Famalicao
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.06 – 1.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Famalicao away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.06 goals for C.D. Nacional and 1.49 for FC Famalicao. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, C.D. Nacional took 3 points and FC Famalicao 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for C.D. Nacional, 1 draw, 2 wins for FC Famalicao. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1C.D. Nacional | 4.10 | 23 % | +4.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -8.7 % |
| 2FC Famalicao | 1.91 | 49 % | -9.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
C.D. Nacional
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Famalicao
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| C.D. Nacional | Form and statistics | FC Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| 1463 | Elo | 1609 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 12.2 | Shots / match | 10.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- C.D. Nacional
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao1-0C.D. Nacional
- C.D. Nacional0-1FC Famalicao
- C.D. Nacional2-1FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao0-0C.D. Nacional
Frequently asked questions
Who will win C.D. Nacional – FC Famalicao?
Our model gives 2 · FC Famalicao a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: C.D. Nacional win 26 %, draw 27 %, FC Famalicao win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for C.D. Nacional – FC Famalicao?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
