Predictions are closed for this match.
Athletic Club
04:15 PM
Sep 19
Alavés
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletic Club | 1.62 | 59 % | -33.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +6.4 % |
| 2Alavés | 6.00 | 16 % | +85.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Athletic Club
Alavés
| Athletic Club | Form and statistics | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| 1622 | Elo | 1616 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 13.9 | Shots / match | 13.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Athletic Club a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Athletic Club win 41 %, draw 28 %, Alavés win 31 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.62 for Athletic Club, 3.80 for the draw, 6.00 for Alavés.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:15 PM (LaLiga), at San Mamés.
The model leans towards Athletic Club at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Athletic Club and 1.18 for Alavés. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Athletic Club took 7 points and Alavés 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Athletic Club, 1 draw, 1 win for Alavés. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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