St Mirren
04:00 PM
Sep 19
Dundee United
St Mirren – Dundee United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St Mirren at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for St Mirren and 1.14 for Dundee United. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, St Mirren took 7 points and Dundee United 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for St Mirren, 1 draw, 2 wins for Dundee United. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St Mirren | 2.23 | 42 % | -1.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +3.5 % |
| 2Dundee United | 2.85 | 33 % | -19.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
St Mirren
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Dundee United
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| St Mirren | Form and statistics | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| 1463 | Elo | 1472 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 0.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 13.9 | Shots / match | 14.6 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- St Mirren
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Dundee United
- St Mirren1-1Dundee United
- Dundee United2-1St Mirren
- St Mirren2-0Dundee United
- Dundee United3-1St Mirren
- Dundee United0-2St Mirren
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St Mirren – Dundee United?
Our model gives 1 · St Mirren a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St Mirren win 44 %, draw 28 %, Dundee United win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for St Mirren – Dundee United?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
