Wrexham
2-1
Southampton
Wrexham – Southampton
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.68
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Wrexham 2-1 Southampton. The model predicted a win for Southampton (49 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.16 goals for Wrexham and 1.68 for Southampton. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, Wrexham took 5 points and Southampton 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Wrexham, 0 draws, 2 wins for Southampton. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wrexham | 2.55 | 37 % | -33.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | -7.9 % |
| 2Southampton | 2.52 | 37 % | +22.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Wrexham
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Southampton
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Wrexham
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Southampton
- Wrexham1-5Southampton
- Southampton2-1Wrexham
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Wrexham – Southampton?
Final score: Wrexham 2-1 Southampton. The model predicted a win for Southampton (49 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Wrexham – Southampton?
Our model gives 2 · Southampton a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Wrexham win 26 %, draw 25 %, Southampton win 49 %.