Portsmouth
04:00 PM
Sep 19
Blackburn Rovers
Portsmouth – Blackburn Rovers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portsmouth at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.36 goals for Portsmouth and 1.18 for Blackburn Rovers. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Portsmouth took 7 points and Blackburn Rovers 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Portsmouth, 1 draw, 1 win for Blackburn Rovers. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portsmouth | 2.23 | 42 % | -8.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -2.8 % |
| 2Blackburn Rovers | 3.17 | 30 % | -3.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Portsmouth
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Blackburn Rovers
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Portsmouth | Form and statistics | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 1437 | Elo | 1443 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 12.6 | Shots / match | 13.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Portsmouth
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Blackburn Rovers
- Blackburn Rovers1-1Portsmouth
- Portsmouth2-1Blackburn Rovers
- Portsmouth1-0Blackburn Rovers
- Blackburn Rovers3-0Portsmouth
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portsmouth – Blackburn Rovers?
Our model gives 1 · Portsmouth a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portsmouth win 41 %, draw 29 %, Blackburn Rovers win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Portsmouth – Blackburn Rovers?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
