Burnley
1-1
Derby County
Burnley – Derby County
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.05
The short version
Final score: Burnley 1-1 Derby County. The model predicted a win for Burnley (48 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Burnley and 1.05 for Derby County. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Burnley took 2 points and Derby County 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Burnley, 2 draws, 0 wins for Derby County. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 1.79 | 53 % | -14.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +3.5 % |
| 2Derby County | 4.27 | 22 % | +4.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Burnley
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Derby County
- Burnley2-1Derby County
- Derby County0-0Burnley
- Burnley0-0Derby County
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burnley – Derby County?
Final score: Burnley 1-1 Derby County. The model predicted a win for Burnley (48 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Burnley – Derby County?
Our model gives 1 · Burnley a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burnley win 48 %, draw 28 %, Derby County win 25 %.