Birmingham City
04:00 PM
Sep 19
Middlesbrough
Birmingham City – Middlesbrough
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Middlesbrough away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Birmingham City and 1.53 for Middlesbrough. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Birmingham City took 8 points and Middlesbrough 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Birmingham City, 0 draws, 4 wins for Middlesbrough. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham City | 2.83 | 33 % | -16.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +1.1 % |
| 2Middlesbrough | 2.33 | 41 % | -1.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Birmingham City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Middlesbrough
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Birmingham City | Form and statistics | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| 1497 | Elo | 1557 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 11.7 | Shots / match | 17.8 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Birmingham City
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Middlesbrough
- Birmingham City1-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough2-1Birmingham City
- Birmingham City0-1Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0Birmingham City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Birmingham City – Middlesbrough?
Our model gives 2 · Middlesbrough a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Birmingham City win 30 %, draw 28 %, Middlesbrough win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for Birmingham City – Middlesbrough?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
