Brighton & Hove Albion
04:00 PM
Sep 19
Arsenal
Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.39 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.36 for Arsenal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Brighton & Hove Albion took 10 points and Arsenal 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Brighton & Hove Albion, 2 draws, 3 wins for Arsenal. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brighton & Hove Albion | 5.00 | 19 % | +72.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.83 | 25 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Arsenal | 1.69 | 56 % | -33.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Form and statistics | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1745 | Elo | 1955 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 18.8 | Shots / match | 14.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Arsenal
- Brighton & Hove Albion0-1Arsenal
- Arsenal2-1Brighton & Hove Albion
- Arsenal2-0Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion1-1Arsenal
- Arsenal1-1Brighton & Hove Albion
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal?
Our model gives 2 · Arsenal a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brighton & Hove Albion win 35 %, draw 26 %, Arsenal win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
