Hamburg SV
2-1
FC Cologne
Hamburg SV – FC Cologne
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.41 – 1.52
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Hamburg SV 2-1 FC Cologne. The model predicted a win for Hamburg SV (36 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.41 goals for Hamburg SV and 1.52 for FC Cologne. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hamburg SV took 4 points and FC Cologne 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Hamburg SV, 1 draw, 1 win for FC Cologne. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamburg SV | 2.70 | 35 % | -1.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -1.5 % |
| 2FC Cologne | 2.45 | 39 % | -11.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hamburg SV
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Cologne
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Hamburg SV
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- FC Cologne
- Hamburg SV1-1FC Cologne
- FC Cologne4-1Hamburg SV
- Hamburg SV1-0FC Cologne
- FC Cologne1-2Hamburg SV
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Hamburg SV – FC Cologne?
Final score: Hamburg SV 2-1 FC Cologne. The model predicted a win for Hamburg SV (36 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Hamburg SV – FC Cologne?
Our model gives 1 · Hamburg SV a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hamburg SV win 36 %, draw 27 %, FC Cologne win 36 %.