Predictions are closed for this match.
Västerås SK
03:00 PM
Sep 19
Malmö FF
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Västerås SK | 3.50 | 27 % | +10.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +1.6 % |
| 2Malmö FF | 1.95 | 48 % | -19.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Västerås SK
Malmö FF
| Västerås SK | Form and statistics | Malmö FF |
|---|---|---|
| 1499 | Elo | 1559 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 11.4 | Shots / match | 15.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Malmö FF a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Västerås SK win 31 %, draw 27 %, Malmö FF win 41 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.50 for Västerås SK, 3.75 for the draw, 1.95 for Malmö FF.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Allsvenskan), at Hitachi Energy Arena.
The model leans towards Malmö FF away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.31 goals for Västerås SK and 1.47 for Malmö FF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Västerås SK took 7 points and Malmö FF 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Västerås SK, 1 draw, 1 win for Malmö FF. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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