Predictions are closed for this match.
Bologna
03:00 PM
Sep 19
Torino
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bologna | 1.95 | 48 % | -0.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.17 | 29 % | -11.1 % |
| 2Torino | 4.15 | 23 % | -13.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Bologna
Torino
| Bologna | Form and statistics | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| 1627 | Elo | 1540 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 11.7 | Shots / match | 10.9 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Bologna a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bologna win 51 %, draw 28 %, Torino win 21 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.95 for Bologna, 3.17 for the draw, 4.15 for Torino.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Serie A), at Renato Dall'Ara.
The model leans towards Bologna at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Bologna and 0.94 for Torino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bologna took 2 points and Torino 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Bologna, 2 draws, 0 wins for Torino. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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