Predictions are closed for this match.
Palermo
03:00 PM
Sep 19
Padova
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palermo | 1.52 | 62 % | +5.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -21.1 % |
| 2Padova | 6.00 | 16 % | -33.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Palermo
Padova
| Palermo | Form and statistics | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| 1605 | Elo | 1435 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 13.2 | Shots / match | 10.9 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Palermo a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Palermo win 70 %, draw 19 %, Padova win 11 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.52 for Palermo, 4.10 for the draw, 6.00 for Padova.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
The model leans towards Palermo at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.10 goals for Palermo and 0.77 for Padova. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, Palermo took 13 points and Padova 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Palermo, 0 draws, 0 wins for Padova. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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