Osasuna
1-1
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.38
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano. The model predicted a win for Rayo Vallecano (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.22 goals for Osasuna and 1.38 for Rayo Vallecano. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Osasuna took 6 points and Rayo Vallecano 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Osasuna, 1 draw, 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Osasuna | 2.70 | 35 % | -11.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 30 % | -5.1 % |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 2.75 | 35 % | +3.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Osasuna
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rayo Vallecano
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Osasuna
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1-3Osasuna
- Osasuna2-0Rayo Vallecano
- Osasuna1-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano3-1Osasuna
- Rayo Vallecano2-1Osasuna
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano?
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano. The model predicted a win for Rayo Vallecano (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano?
Our model gives 2 · Rayo Vallecano a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Osasuna win 33 %, draw 30 %, Rayo Vallecano win 37 %.