Spain
England
Spain – England
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 14, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Spain at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.76 goals for Spain and 1.11 for England. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Spain took 15 points and England 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Spain, 0 draws, 0 wins for England. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 1.68 | 55 % | -15.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 23 % | +0.8 % |
| 2England | 4.30 | 22 % | +3.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Spain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
England
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Spain
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- England
- England2-3Spain
- Spain2-1England
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Spain – England?
Our model gives 1 · Spain a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Spain win 50 %, draw 26 %, England win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Spain – England?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.