Predictions are closed for this match.
Millwall
01:30 PM
Sep 19
West Ham United
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 4.95 | 19 % | +56.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +14.2 % |
| 2West Ham United | 1.63 | 58 % | -34.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Millwall
West Ham United
| Millwall | Form and statistics | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| 1534 | Elo | 1631 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 2.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 12.3 | Shots / match | 15.2 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · West Ham United a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Millwall win 32 %, draw 28 %, West Ham United win 40 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.95 for Millwall, 4.10 for the draw, 1.63 for West Ham United.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (Championship), at The Den.
The model leans towards West Ham United away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for Millwall and 1.54 for West Ham United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Millwall took 4 points and West Ham United 12 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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