Tottenham Hotspur
01:30 PM
Sep 19
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Aston Villa away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.50 for Aston Villa. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 24 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.92, the predicted outcome carries +69.4 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Tottenham Hotspur took 5 points and Aston Villa 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tottenham Hotspur, 0 draws, 4 wins for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tottenham Hotspur | 1.85 | 51 % | -45.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | +4.0 % |
| 2Aston Villa |
Form and statistics
Tottenham Hotspur
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Tottenham Hotspur | Form and statistics | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1612 | Elo | 1771 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 14.4 | Shots / match | 13.0 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-2Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham Hotspur1-2Aston Villa
- Tottenham Hotspur1-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-0Tottenham Hotspur
- Aston Villa2-1Tottenham Hotspur
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa?
Our model gives 2 · Aston Villa a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tottenham Hotspur win 29 %, draw 28 %, Aston Villa win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
