Jamaica
Mexico
Jamaica – Mexico
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.91 – 1.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mexico away from home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.91 goals for Jamaica and 1.74 for Mexico. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Jamaica took 7 points and Mexico 2 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Jamaica, 2 draws, 3 wins for Mexico. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jamaica | 5.75 | 16 % | +3.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -16.9 % |
| 2Mexico | 1.50 | 61 % | -9.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Jamaica
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mexico
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Jamaica
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Mexico
- Mexico1-0Jamaica
- Jamaica0-3Mexico
- Mexico2-2Jamaica
- Jamaica1-1Mexico
- Jamaica1-2Mexico
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Jamaica – Mexico?
Our model gives 2 · Mexico a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Jamaica win 18 %, draw 22 %, Mexico win 60 %.
What is the most likely score for Jamaica – Mexico?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.