Chapecoense
Vasco da Gama
Chapecoense – Vasco da Gama
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.04 – 1.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vasco da Gama away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.04 goals for Chapecoense and 1.61 for Vasco da Gama. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Chapecoense took 3 points and Vasco da Gama 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Chapecoense, 4 draws, 1 win for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chapecoense | 6.00 | 16 % | +50.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | +18.6 % |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 1.46 | 64 % | -28.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Chapecoense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vasco da Gama
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Chapecoense
- 4 draws
- 1 win
- Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-1Chapecoense
- Vasco da Gama0-0Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-1Chapecoense
- Chapecoense1-2Vasco da Gama
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chapecoense – Vasco da Gama?
Our model gives 2 · Vasco da Gama a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chapecoense win 25 %, draw 26 %, Vasco da Gama win 49 %.
What is the most likely score for Chapecoense – Vasco da Gama?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.