Querétaro
Monterrey
Querétaro – Monterrey
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Monterrey away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.29 goals for Querétaro and 1.53 for Monterrey. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Querétaro took no points and Monterrey 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Querétaro, 1 draw, 4 wins for Monterrey. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Querétaro | 3.40 | 28 % | +7.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -2.3 % |
| 2Monterrey | 2.00 | 47 % | -15.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Querétaro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Monterrey
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Querétaro
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Monterrey
- Monterrey4-0Querétaro
- Querétaro0-1Monterrey
- Querétaro2-4Monterrey
- Monterrey2-1Querétaro
- Monterrey1-1Querétaro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Querétaro – Monterrey?
Our model gives 2 · Monterrey a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Querétaro win 31 %, draw 26 %, Monterrey win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for Querétaro – Monterrey?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.