Haiti
United States
Haiti – United States
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards United States away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.22 goals for Haiti and 1.88 for United States. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, Haiti took 9 points and United States 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Haiti, 0 draws, 2 wins for United States. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Haiti | 7.50 | 12 % | +88.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 18 % | +3.3 % |
| 2United States | 1.31 | 70 % | -28.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Haiti
- Last 5 matches
- At home
United States
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Haiti
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- United States
- United States2-1Haiti
- United States1-0Haiti
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Haiti – United States?
Our model gives 2 · United States a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Haiti win 25 %, draw 21 %, United States win 54 %.
What is the most likely score for Haiti – United States?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.