Mirassol
Atlético-MG
Mirassol – Atlético-MG
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mirassol at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Mirassol and 1.13 for Atlético-MG. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mirassol took 7 points and Atlético-MG 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mirassol, 1 draw, 2 wins for Atlético-MG. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mirassol | 1.95 | 48 % | -14.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +4.9 % |
| 2Atlético-MG | 3.65 | 26 % | -3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mirassol
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Mirassol
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG3-1Mirassol
- Atlético-MG1-0Mirassol
- Mirassol2-2Atlético-MG
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mirassol – Atlético-MG?
Our model gives 1 · Mirassol a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mirassol win 44 %, draw 30 %, Atlético-MG win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Mirassol – Atlético-MG?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.