Criciúma
Novorizontino
Criciúma – Novorizontino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Novorizontino away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Criciúma and 1.24 for Novorizontino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Criciúma took 9 points and Novorizontino 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Criciúma, 1 draw, 2 wins for Novorizontino. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Criciúma | 2.75 | 34 % | -6.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -11.9 % |
| 2Novorizontino | 2.65 | 35 % | -1.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Criciúma
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Criciúma
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Novorizontino
- Novorizontino0-1Criciúma
- Criciúma2-0Novorizontino
- Novorizontino1-1Criciúma
- Novorizontino2-0Criciúma
- Novorizontino3-1Criciúma
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Criciúma – Novorizontino?
Our model gives 2 · Novorizontino a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Criciúma win 34 %, draw 29 %, Novorizontino win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Criciúma – Novorizontino?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.