Holstein Kiel
01:00 PM
Sep 19
VfL Osnabruck
Holstein Kiel – VfL Osnabruck
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:53 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Holstein Kiel at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.76 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.07 for VfL Osnabruck. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Holstein Kiel took 5 points and VfL Osnabruck 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 1 draw, 0 wins for VfL Osnabruck. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holstein Kiel | 1.88 | 50 % | -2.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -3.4 % |
| 2VfL Osnabruck | 3.75 | 25 % | -16.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Holstein Kiel
- Last 5 matches
- At home
VfL Osnabruck
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Holstein Kiel | Form and statistics | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| 1471 | Elo | 1387 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 2.70 |
| 12.6 | Shots / match | 12.4 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Holstein Kiel
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- VfL Osnabruck
- VfL Osnabruck1-1Holstein Kiel
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Holstein Kiel – VfL Osnabruck?
Our model gives 1 · Holstein Kiel a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Holstein Kiel win 52 %, draw 26 %, VfL Osnabruck win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Holstein Kiel – VfL Osnabruck?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
