Predictions are closed for this match.
Espanyol
09:00 PM
Sep 18
Elche
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Espanyol | 1.80 | 53 % | -23.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +8.5 % |
| 2Elche | 4.60 | 21 % | +30.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Espanyol
Elche
| Espanyol | Form and statistics | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| 1583 | Elo | 1579 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 2.00 |
| 11.8 | Shots / match | 10.7 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Espanyol a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Espanyol win 42 %, draw 29 %, Elche win 28 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.80 for Espanyol, 3.70 for the draw, 4.60 for Elche.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (LaLiga), at RCDE Stadium.
The model leans towards Espanyol at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Espanyol and 1.11 for Elche. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Espanyol took 4 points and Elche 1 point. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Espanyol, 2 draws, 0 wins for Elche. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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