Portugal
Denmark
Portugal – Denmark
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.79 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portugal at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.79 goals for Portugal and 1.04 for Denmark. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, Portugal took 12 points and Denmark 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Portugal, 0 draws, 1 win for Denmark. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 1.50 | 62 % | -17.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +2.7 % |
| 2Denmark | 5.50 | 17 % | +17.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Portugal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Denmark
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Portugal
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Denmark
- Denmark2-4Portugal
- Portugal5-2Denmark
- Denmark1-0Portugal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portugal – Denmark?
Our model gives 1 · Portugal a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portugal win 55 %, draw 23 %, Denmark win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Portugal – Denmark?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.