Estádio 11 de Novembro
Angola
South Sudan
Angola – South Sudan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 77 %
- Most likely score
- 2-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.14 – 0.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 39 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Angola at home (77 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.14 goals for Angola and 0.58 for South Sudan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 84 %. Over their last five matches, Angola took 9 points and South Sudan 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 39 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Angola | 1.08 | 84 % | -16.9 % |
| XDraw | 8.00 | 11 % | +22.9 % |
| 2South Sudan | 20.00 | 5 % | +54.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Angola
- Last 5 matches
- At home
South Sudan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Angola – South Sudan?
Our model gives 1 · Angola a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Angola win 77 %, draw 15 %, South Sudan win 8 %.
What is the most likely score for Angola – South Sudan?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.