Hocine Aït Ahmed Stadium
Algeria
Togo
Algeria – Togo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 2-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.19 – 0.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 42 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Algeria at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.19 goals for Algeria and 0.63 for Togo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Algeria took 8 points and Togo 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Algeria, 1 draw, 0 wins for Togo. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 42 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Algeria | 1.19 | 76 % | -6.6 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 16 % | -20.1 % |
| 2Togo | 12.00 | 8 % | -16.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Algeria
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Togo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Algeria
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Togo
- Togo0-1Algeria
- Algeria5-1Togo
- Togo0-3Algeria
- Algeria0-0Togo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Algeria – Togo?
Our model gives 1 · Algeria a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Algeria win 79 %, draw 15 %, Togo win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Algeria – Togo?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.