Predictions are closed for this match.
Bristol City
09:00 PM
Sep 18
Watford
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bristol City | 1.70 | 55 % | -9.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.3 % |
| 2Watford | 4.50 | 21 % | -5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Bristol City
Watford
| Bristol City | Form and statistics | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| 1450 | Elo | 1379 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 15.1 | Shots / match | 14.8 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Bristol City a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bristol City win 53 %, draw 26 %, Watford win 21 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.70 for Bristol City, 3.95 for the draw, 4.50 for Watford.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Championship), at Ashton Gate.
The model leans towards Bristol City at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Bristol City and 1.00 for Watford. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bristol City took 9 points and Watford 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Bristol City, 1 draw, 2 wins for Watford. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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